Two Worlds of Strategy

Although war is a uniquely military activity because of the threat or use of violence, organizations that go to war share many characteristics with civilian organizations.

Source: Two Worlds of Strategy


The Disinformation Vaccination

While many have woken up to the realities of Russian disinformation, responding to Moscow and censuring social media cannot be the end of the story. Instead, the U.S. should take a long, hard look in the mirror and invest in its own citizens.

Source: The Disinformation Vaccination

The Steele Dossier Fits the Kremlin Playbook

An age old way to influence input to any decision-making process and legitimize mis/dis information. And it is not a Russians-only playbook.

The likely objective was to undermine Republicans, Democrats—and American democracy.

Source: The Steele Dossier Fits the Kremlin Playbook


Former Spies on Nunes Memo: Underwhelmed, Unconvinced

Much ado about nothing?

Gen. Hayden: “That’s it? That’s your best shot at FBI and DOJ corruption? Quit wasting my time.”

Source: Former Spies on Nunes Memo: Underwhelmed, Unconvinced


CIA Chief Pompeo on Keeping Secrets & Slowing Down Pyongyang

A bad misreading of Pompeo’s risk statement by DeTrani. What was he thinking? Taking risks “especially in the business of analysis” invites disaster. Any probability based statement about the state of something (fact) includes a confidence interval/level and clearly stated assumptions and inputs. Analysis has 0 … 0 to do with risk. It is possible to waste time assessing a million irrelevant remote possibilities with next to impossible confidence levels. Risk is always linked to an outcome, most likely operational .

I hope he meant thinking out of the box. There is only place where probability analysis and risk outcome overlap is Quantum Mechanics, he realm of electromagnetic radiation, particles and rays of light. Like Schrodinger cat for people — is there a cat (body) in the box (coffin,) is it the right body, will he die if we opened the coffin? Stuff like that.

“In this business, there is no ‘100 percent.’ So, I think his statement is very fair, that people should be not risk adverse. They need to – especially in the business of analysis, when you’re looking at a stream of data and you need to make judgments as to what that data represents… you have to base it on something, so you have to take a risk by definition in the business of analysis when you’re doing this work. So I not only agree with what he said, I applaud what he said. And hopefully that is the case – that people are being encouraged – certainly analysts are being encouraged to take risks with their estimates – based on as much information as possible.”

Source: CIA Chief Pompeo on Keeping Secrets & Slowing Down Pyongyang


How VR Is Helping Convict Nazis In Court

Software engineers used blueprints, old photographs, and visits to reconstruct Auschwitz-Bikernau–and prove that one guard knew what was happening there.

Source: How VR Is Helping Convict Nazis In Court


Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal – Relax

Source: Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal – Relax


Thoughts on Erik Prince’s Proposal to Privatize Intelligence Gathering

Speaking of military/intelligence/political leadership moral prudence vs. running a business …

The implications of Erik Prince’s recent proposal to create a private intelligence organization.

Source: Thoughts on Erik Prince’s Proposal to Privatize Intelligence Gathering


CIA Director Met Advocate of Disputed DNC Hack Theory — at Trump’s Request

The critics’ bullet-proof “conclusion” while being critical of certainty level arrived “assessments” is also full of “may”s and alternative explanations.

Notwithstanding 9 “may have”s and 16 “likely”s in the Forensicator analysis  (ahem non-assessment assessment,) there is nothing contradicting a remote hacker initially copying server data to local computers/mounts to assure future access. Later cross OS fingerprints, time-stamps and forensics can be due to staging or multiple transfers between devices before they got to Wikileaks, or can all be false breadcrumbs and not conclusive by themselves since they are all based on a single source.

That is assuming all other corroborating IP/SSH tracks are also false and all other evidence is orchestrated to create a Guccifer 2.0 persona — which is the main central assumption. And Information warfare on Facebook, Twitter, bots, fake news, active measures … never mind … I almost gave this a Just Nuts grade but thought not!

Mike Pompeo sought “facts” from NSA whistleblower William Binney, who says the 2016 theft of DNC emails was an inside job, not a Russian hack.

Source: CIA Director Met Advocate of Disputed DNC Hack Theory — at Trump’s Request


Prospect Theory and the Problem of Strategy: Lessons from Sicily and Dien Bien Phu

The inability or unwillingness to recognize defeat and its implications resulted in both greater material losses and amplified the strategic consequences for inevitable failures. Strategy is a human endeavor, and prospect theory offers unique insights into another dimension of the human face of war.

Source: Prospect Theory and the Problem of Strategy: Lessons from Sicily and Dien Bien Phu